Economic Consensus is a global macroeconomic survey company that gathers over 700 economists each month for their estimates for over 2000 macroeconomic indicators in 115 countries. The company is headquartered in London, England.
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History
The Economic Consensus conducted its first survey in October 1989 and has completed monthly (and now daily) surveys without interruption since then.
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Forecast
The Economic Consensus publishes the TM Consensus Forecast, a much-cited monthly compilation of macroeconomic estimates and topical analysis by the state for 115 economies. The countries covered include member states of the G-7 industrialized countries, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, and Latin America. It also has more special publications such as estimated Foreign Exchange and Energy & amp; Estimated Metal Consensus. Each publication is distributed in hard copy format and via email as a PDF file and an Excel spreadsheet. Once a year the company released The Consensus Forecasts Global Outlook in early November, covering long-term forecasts for countries in Western and Eastern Europe, North and South America and Asia Pacific.
In addition to available forecasts for customers, the Consensus Economy offers more current and detailed estimates of data to institutional investors, to corporate planning executives and to governments and international agencies. The history of this forecast is also licensed for research purposes.
Report
The catalog of Economic consensus publications covers 115 countries, emerging in the following regions: G-7 countries, Eurozone, Western Europe, Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, Nordic countries, Asia Pacific, Latin America and Eastern Europe. A list of countries that compile monthly compilations of country economic forecasts can be found below for the following publications:
Consensus Forecast
United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, Euro zone, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Nigeria, Portugal, Saudi Arabia Arabia and South Africa.
Forecast Asia Pacific Consensus
Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.
Latin American Consensus Forecast
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
Eastern European Consensus forecast
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Turkey, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Cyprus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Consensus Forecast - AS
A detailed coverage of the US economy, showing estimates for 20 macroeconomic variables.
In addition, monthly forecast data is also available for exchange rates as well as various commodity prices. This appears in Forecasts of Foreign Exchange Consensus and Energy and Metal Consensus Forecasts .
Forecast of Foreign Exchange Consensus
This publication provides coverage for over 90 currencies, which includes: US Dollars, Euro, Japanese yen, Argentine peso, Australian dollar, Brazilian real, Canadian dollar, Chilean peso, Chinese renminbi, Colombian peso, Czech koruna, Danish krone, Hong Dollar Kong, Hungarian forint, Indian rupee, Indonesian Rupee, Israeli shekel, Malaysian ringgit, Mexican peso, New Zealand dollar, Norwegian kron, sol Peru, Philippine peso, Polish zloty, Romanian leu, Russian ruble, Singapore dollar, South African Rand, South Korean Won, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, Taiwan dollar, Thai baht, Turkish lira, Ukrainian hryvnia, British pound, Venezuelan bolivar, Albania lek, Algerian dinar, Angola kwanza, manat Azerbaijan, Bahrainan Dinar, Bangladeshi taka, Belarusian ruble, Bolivia boliviano, Botswana, Bulgarian lev, Costa Rican colon, Croatian kuna, Dominican Republic peso, Ecuadorian sucre, Egyptian pound, El Salvador colon, Georgian run, Ghana Ghana, Guatemalan quetzal, Guyana Dollar, Haitian Gourde, Honduran lempira, Icelandic Chronicles, R Iranian Dinar, Ivory Coast Franc CFA, Jamaican Dollar, Jordanian Dinar, Tenge Kazakhstani, Kenyan Shilling, Kuwait Dinar, Laos Kip, Lebanese Pound, Libyan Dinar, Makedonian Denar, Malawian kwacha, Moroccan Dirham, Myanmarian kyat, Nicaragua cordoba, naira Nigeria, rial Oman, rupee Pakistan, Guarani Paraguay, riyal Saudi Arabia, Serbian Dinar, Sri Lankan rupee, Sudanese pound, Syrian pound, Tanzanian shillings, Tunisian Dinar, UAE Dirham, Ugandan Shilling, Uruguayan peso, dong Vietnam, rial Yemen, and kwacha Zambia.
Energy Consensus Forecast and Metal
Coverage of more than 30 commodities, including crude oil (Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude oil), US gasoline & amp; heating oil, European gas oil, natural gas (UK and Hub Henry AS), coal (Australian coking coal, Australian coal steaming place and contract price), uranium, aluminum, alumina & amp; aluminum alloy, copper, nickel, lead, zinc, steel (hot rolled coil and Asia hot rolled coil), iron (fines North China, Australian fines, Australian lumps and Brazil fine), tin, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, rutile, ilmenite, zircon, gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
Current economy
In addition to the publication of the monthly economic forecasts report, the Consensus Economy also produced a monthly journal covering articles from some of the world's leading international companies.
A complete list of Economic Consensus reports can be found on their website.
Reception
Academic research
A 2001 paper by Roy Batchelor of City University Business School, London compares the Consensus forecast with estimates made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The study found: "With few exceptions, private sector forecasts are less biased and more accurate in terms of the average absolute error and the mean square error of error.A formal test indicates this difference is statistically significant for real growth and production forecasts, less so for inflation estimates and unemployment Overall, there is little information in OECD and IMF estimates that can be used to significantly reduce errors in private sector forecasts. "
The accuracy and bias in joint prophecies has become a topic of academic research. A 2009 paper by Ager, Kappler and Osterloh found: "A test for general bias reveals that some countries show biased forecasts, especially with estimates that span more than 12 months.This result partially confirms the notion that macroeconomic forecasts over the past 10 years are highly affected by the shake that was pronounced in that period The fact that for the systematic biases of individual states can be observed by applying Consensus Forecast reveals that in these countries the forecasting industry as a whole is unable to cope with specific shocks for the last ten years. then for forecast GDP growth has significant explanatory power for the current revision for almost all countries.For the revision of inflation, we found significant past revisions for some countries.Overall, our results imply that the lack of information efficiency is more severe for GDP a forecast rather than an estimate of inflation. "
A 2011 paper by Filip Novotny and Marie Rakova for the Czech National Bank compares the accuracy of the Consensus Forecasts forecast with the International Monetary Fund and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates. Echoing the results of Ager, Kappler and Osterloh, he found: "In the period 1994 to 2009 Consensus forecast for effective euro area consumer price inflation and GDP growth outperformed alternatives with normally statistically significant differences.The result was more diverse for pre-crisis samples (1994-2007) Consensus forecast of euro zone producer price inflation significantly exceeds naÃÆ'¯ve forecast in the short term Finally, the consensus forecast for the USD/EUR exchange rate over the period from 2002 to 2009 is more precise than the naÃÆ'¯ve forecast and the forecast implied by the forward rate. "
A 2007 paper by Batchelor uses Consensus Forecasts data to consider various theories of bias in macroeconomic forecasts, and concludes: "In all countries there is evidence that individual forecasters converge on consensus forecasts too slowly, but the persistent optimism of some forecasters, and pessimism persistent against others, is inconsistent with predictions of a "rational bias" model that has become popular in the financial and economic literature. "
Consensus Forecasts data has been cited by other academic literature, such as discussions about the Asian financial crisis.
See also
- "How Good Forecasting Performance of Major Agencies?", Overview of the Central Bank of Sweden, Autumn 2001. Marten Blix, Joachim Wadefjord, Ulrika Wienecke and Martin Adahl [1]
- Economic forecasting
- Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which publishes its own macroeconomic forecasts
- International Monetary Fund, which publishes its own global macroeconomic forecast
- Blue Chip Economic Indicators, which publish macroeconomic forecasts for the US economy
- The Professional Forecaster Survey, which publishes macroeconomic forecasts for the US economy
- ECB forecasters Survey Professional, which publishes macroeconomic forecasts for Eurozone
References
External links
- Official website
Source of the article : Wikipedia
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